"Wherefore We must interrupt a silence which it would be criminal to prolong, that We may point out...as they really are, men who are badly disguised." Pope St. Pius X, September 8, 1907, Pascendi Dominici Gregis

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Invest Like It's 1976

I think our economic situation today is almost directly parallel to that of the 1970s, and we are basically in early 1976. If anything, inflation has been and will be worse this time around as our fiscal, trade and monetary situations are far less robust than they were in the 1970s. You can say inflation is low, but not if you base it on the same inflation measuring methodology that was actually used during the '70s. If you use equivalent methodology today, inflation is similar in level to that of '76.

I am also concerned that the debt situation is so bad, there will be no way to put the genie back in the bottle in terms of inflation, so to speak, and we will see a dollar collapse in the next few years. Again, I think the only thing keeping people in the dollar is the marvelous psychological operation the Fed, the BLS, and some in the financial media have conducted to trick us into thinking that inflation is anywhere near reasonable levels. Yes, it is true, productivity gains from technological innovation may allow the dollar to scrape by miraculously once again without an all out collapse, but the average paycheck receiving person will be no better off as those gains will be inflated away as freshly printed money is turned over to Wall Street. It is a disgusting scene, but at least we may be smart enough to play the game and come out ahead or at least stay even.

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